2010 Conference USA Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time in five years, someone other than Memphis is the top seed in the Conference USA Tournament, as the Texas-El Paso Miners won the regular-season title with a 15-1 finish. Winners of 14 straight games, the Miners captured their first-ever C-USA regular- season title and a first-round bye.

Memphis meanwhile, was denied its fifth title in a row, but didn't fall far, finishing second in the league at 13-3. UAB and Marshall also earned first- round passes after identical 11-5 showings, with the Blazers taking the third seed and the Thundering Herd the fourth.

Tulsa, the host of this event, is the fifth seed and final team with a winning league record at 10-6. The sixth seed went to Southern Miss, which posted a level 8-8 mark within the conference. The final six teams also had losing marks in league play and were seeded based on their finishes.

The team that emerges with the title gets to represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament.

Getting the 15th annual C-USA Tournament started on Wednesday is the seventh- seeded Houston Cougars and 10th-seeded East Carolina Pirates. The Cougars are paced by the nation's leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman, who averages 26.0 ppg. Houston, which won the lone regular season meeting with East Carolina, went 7-9 in conference play this season. The Cougars are 8-12 all-time in this tourney, reaching the finals in 2007. On the flip side, East Carolina posted just a 4-12 league mark, and the Pirates are 0-6 all-time in the SBC Tournament.

First-round play will continue with the sixth-seeded Southern Miss Golden Eagles clashing with the 11th-seeded Tulane Green Wave. The Eagles won both regular-season meetings with Tulane and have won two straight games heading into the postseason. USM is 9-12 all-time in this tourney and still in search of its first finals appearance. For Tulane, it has won four straight first- round games in the C-USA Championship, helping the program to a 7-14 all-time mark. The Green Wave however, possess the conference's second worst regular- season record at 3-13.

The fifth-seeded Tulsa Golden Hurricane host the 12th-seeded Rice Owls in the third game on Wednesday. The host school has appeared in the last eight championship games, so that is certainly good news for Tulsa. The Hurricane have appeared in each of the past two championship games, coming up short both times against Memphis. Tulsa took the only meeting with Rice during the regular season after defeating the Owls in the quarterfinals of last year's event. Speaking of Rice, it won just one of 16 league games and brings a seven-game slide into the postseason.

The first round comes to a close with the ninth-seeded UCF Knights taking on the eighth-seeded SMU Mustangs. The Ponies went 7-9 during the regular season in conference action, while the Knights finished 6-10. SMU, which has improved its win total by five games this season, captured the lone meeting during the season with the Knights. Both clubs are just 1-4 all-time in this event, so this is a good chance for one program to make a little noise.

The quarterfinal round begins on Thursday, as second-seeded Memphis awaits the winner of the East Carolina/Houston matchup. After four straight regular- season titles, including three consecutive perfect campaigns, the Tigers settled for a second place finish under first-year head coach Josh Pastner. Memphis came on strong down the stretch and the team is now in search of its fifth straight title in this event. Memphis, which is the only active member to have captured the C-USA Tournament, has won 15 of its last 16 games in this tourney.

The third-seeded UAB Blazers will take the floor in the second quarterfinal round game against either Tulane or Southern Miss. For the sixth time in seven years, the Blazers finished in the top four of the C-USA standings, although they dropped their last two games. Still, UAB is 23-7 overall and even spent time in the Top 25 this season. The Blazers are 13-14 all-time in the C-USA Championship, reaching the finals on two occasions.

The quarterfinals continue when the fourth-seeded Marshall Thundering Herd square off against the victor of the Rice/Tulsa pairing. With a 23-8 mark, Marshall recorded its highest win total since the 1987-88 season. The Herd also earned its first tourney bye since joining the league in 2005. Marshall however, has won just once in four prior appearances in this event.

The top-seeded Texas-El Paso Miners will make their first appearance in the final game of the quarterfinals against the survivor of the UCF/SMU contest. The 21st-ranked Miners are just one of three teams in C-USA history to win 15 league games, as they earned their first outright conference title since 1986-87. This is the fifth C-USA Tournament appearance for UTEP, which reached the semifinals in 2006 and 2008.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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