Big step, but Tiger's not back yet

Golf Betting Lines

12/05/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The drought lasted 749 days, 107 weeks and 27 starts.

Tiger Woods is finally a golfing champion once again. His win Sunday at the Chevron World Challenge was his first since the infamous car crash that derailed his personal life.

Some thought the crash would never derail his professional life, but it did. Woods left Hank Haney, fired Steve Williams and, with Sean Foley and Joe LaCava, got back to the winner's circle.

Is Woods back to being the dominant Woods, the 2000s Woods?

It would be very naive to surmise that based on Sunday's victory.

The Chevron World Challenge is not an official event, although it does award world ranking points. The win actually moved Woods up 31 places to No. 21. No matter how crazy it seems for an event of such little magnitude to carry such large weight, Woods is on the cusp of the top 20.

This event can alter the world rankings completely as we know it, the fact is that one can not be declared "out of a slump" with a victory at a tournament that boasts 18 players.

The world rankings weighted this championship heavily, but the real tournaments of the week were half a globe away.

Four players in the Chevron field are ranked in the top 10 on this Monday morning. Three of the top four players in the world were at the Nedbank Challenge in Sun City, South Africa. The missing player from that quartet, Rory McIlroy, won a full-field event in Hong Kong on the European Tour.

Woods' game held up brilliantly against Zach Johnson down the stretch, but that wasn't the same as getting into a dogfight with Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, McIlroy or Martin Kaymer.

The Nedbank is one of the most lucrative events in the sport. The Hong Kong Open was the final full-field tournament on the European Tour schedule. Players were trying to get into the top 60 on the money list so they could get into the field this week at the Dubai World Championship.

That took away from the quality of the Chevron field, thus, took away some from the quality of Woods' victory.

"This is a tough date right before the Race to Dubai," Woods said after his victory Sunday. "I'm ecstatic the field we got. Got a lot of good players here. Generally in the past we've had more international players that play; this year was basically an American kind of field. We'll see. It's all schedule. The Race to Dubai is now part of a new reality for us, and maybe we can work around it somehow."

Without the greatest field in the world, Woods did come out on top and that's important. A first win has to come somewhere and at some time. Woods couldn't control this field, or who would emerge at the top of it. Johnson played decently for a few days, then Tiger blew by him with birdies at the end.

That's why this victory can't be considered anything more than a nice, positive step. You have to test your game in the most pressure-packed of situations. Due respect to Johnson and Sherwood Country Club, but that glorified pro-am won't be confused with the back nine Sunday at Augusta.

Woods won't be back all the way until he wins a major championship. He's based his entire career on those four championships, so until he captures another one of those, then you'll see a different column.

That's an incredibly high and possibly unfair bar to reach, but Woods set it. Remember, the 2009 PGA Tour season saw Woods win six times and he took home the FedExCup for a second time.

Injuries happen. Age catches up to all of us, but Woods was the player he always had been before the car accident. We all knew he'd get back to winning, but this doesn't signify he's all the way back.

You can't be back when your only victory is an unofficial one with 17 of your buddies in the field.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

- As explained to me by Doug Ferguson of the AP over twitter, Woods' big jump in the world rankings is based more on his number of events over two years than the field or size. The rankings seemed flawed.

- Luke Donald will go for history Sunday. He can become the first player to win the money title on the PGA Tour and European Tour in the same year. Rory McIlroy is trying to put some heat on him with a win in Hong Kong, but young Mr. McIlroy will need a really high finish to inch past Donald.

- The Geoff Ogilvy/Robert Allenby near fight over their Presidents Cup play seems a tad trivial. Allenby had to be upset at such a bad performance at his home course. Heated words, an offer to go outside over a spilled drink really isn't much, but it passes for serious action in the buttoned-up world of professional golf. That happens at your local bar, everyone's back playing darts in no time.

- Movie moment - Caught "The Descendants" the other day and that Clooney cat has a bright future. It's a great movie alternating between a comedic road trip and a sad tale of a broken family.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Super Bowl XLIV Odds

Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.

Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.

Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds

With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.

That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.

Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.

After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.

The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).

To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.

NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV

New England Patriots 8/1

Dallas Cowboys 9/1

New York Giants 10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1

Indianapolis Colts 12/1

San Diego Chargers 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

Tennessee Titans 16/1

Carolina Panthers 18/1

Philadelphia Eagles 18/1

New Orleans Saints 20/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Denver Broncos 25/1

Green Bay Packers 25/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1

Minnesota Vikings 25/1

New York Jets 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Chicago BearS 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Buffalo Bills 35/1

Houston TexaNS 35/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Washington Redskins 35/1

Seattle SeahawkS 50/1

Cleveland Browns 55/1

Cincinnati Bengals 60/1

San Francisco 49ers 60/1

Oakland Raiders 75/1

St. Louis Rams 75/1

Detroit Lions 100/1

Kansas City Chiefs 100/1

Odds as of: 2/2/09

Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds

To visit this online sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.