COLLEGE FB PACKAGE: Buckeyes, Bulls face trick first tests as new Nos. 1 and 2

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/17/2007 -

It had been 11 years since Nos. 1 and 2 lost on the same day before LSU and California pulled the trick last week.

In this unpredictable college football season, would it be all that surprising to see the top two teams in the AP poll and the BCS standings go down in the same weekend again?

Top-ranked Ohio State and No. 2 South Florida both face unranked opponents. But 10 teams with top-10 rankings have already lost to unranked opponents, so what's a couple more?

The Buckeyes' (7-0, 3-0 Big Ten) first game this season as No. 1 will be at home against Michigan State and former Ohio State defensive coordinator Mark Dantonio, who in his first season as head coach has the Spartans (5-2, 1-2) well positioned for their first winning season since 2003.

Dantonio has the Spartans getting after the quarterback, they're second in the nation in sacks with 29, and running the ball well (243 yards per game).

Ohio State's rise from No. 11 to start the season includes only one victory over a team that's been ranked at any point this season.

South Florida, the feel-good story out of the Big East, faces last year's feel-good story out of the Big East. The Bulls (6-0, 1-0) visit Rutgers on Thursday night.

The Scarlet Knights (4-2, 1-1), who started the season 16th in the rankings, broke a two-game losing streak with a win over Syracuse last week. Another conference loss would put Rutgers' league title hopes in peril.

The picks:ThursdayNo. 2 South Florida (minus 2 1/2) at Rutgers

Scarlet Knights stopped late 2-point conversion to beat Bulls last season ... USF 24-23.Saturday's GamesMichigan State (plus 17) at No. 1 Ohio State

Buckeyes have won 10 of 12 against Spartans ... OHIO STATE 28-10.No. 4 Oklahoma (minus 29) at Iowa State

Cyclones have worst offense in Big 12 ... OKLAHOMA 48-14.No. 18 Auburn (plus 11) at No. 5 LSU

Auburn won last season's Tiger Fight 7-3 ... LSU 21-13.Vanderbilt (plus 13) at No. 6 South Carolina

Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier has never lost to Vandy ... SOUTH CAROLINA 34-17.No. 7 Oregon (minus 11) at Washington

The 100th meeting between Ducks and Huskies ... OREGON 35-21.No. 14 Florida (minus 7) at No. 8 Kentucky

Gators have won 20 straight against Wildcats ... FLORIDA 34-28.Mississippi State (plus 23 1/2) at No. 9 West Virginia

Mountaineers won first meeting 42-14 last season in Starkville ... WEST VIRGINIA 41-17.No. 10 California (no line) at UCLA

Status of Cal QB Nate Longshore (ankle) questionable ... UCLA 28-24.No. 13 Southern California (minus 18) at Notre Dame

USC has won five straight vs. ND, though last trip to South Bend needed Bush Push to win ... USC 34-14.No. 15 Kansas (minus 4) at Colorado

KU QB Todd Reesing debuted vs. Buffs last season with three TDs ... KANSAS 29-17.No. 22 Texas Tech (plus 3 1/2) at No. 15 Missouri

Red Raiders are No. 1 passing team in nation; Tigers are fifth ... MISSOURI 54-43.No. 19 Texas (minus 24 1/2) at Baylor

Longhorns have scored 125 points in last two seasons against Bears ... TEXAS 50-17.No. 20 Tennessee (plus 1) at Alabama

Volunteers have won 10 of 12 in rivalry ... ALABAMA 31-28.No. 23 Cincinnati (plus 9 1/2) at Pittsburgh

How bad has it gotten for Panthers? Their coach is injured ... CINCINNATI 33-21.No. 24 Michigan (minus 2 1/2) at Illinois

Wolverines are 38-4-2 against Illini since 1959 ... ILLINOIS 28-24.No. 25 Kansas State (plus 3) at Oklahoma State

Cowboys have run for more than 200 yards in six straight games ... KANSAS STATE 34-30.

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Last week's record: 15-6 (straight); 13-7-1 (vs. points)

Season: 123-25 (straight); 67-62-2 (vs. points)Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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