Crafty Yzerman making his mark with Lightning

Hockey Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman brought a copious amount of credibility to the organization when he was hired in May.

Less than two months later, he has also brought in a mass of talent that has the Lightning thinking big for 2010-11.

New Tampa Bay owner Jeff Vinik knew what he was getting when he hired "The Captain" on May 25: a four-time Stanley Cup champion with Detroit (three times as a player) who already had established success building teams on a national level. Yzerman served as Canada's general manager for the IIHF World Championships, winning gold in 2007 and a silver the following year before reaching the top of the mountain this past winter.

As executive director, Yzerman put together a Team Canada that won gold at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver with a thrilling overtime victory over the United States, leading to his exit as Detroit's team vice president and into his current role with Tampa Bay.

What Yzerman has done in his short time with the Lightning is nothing short of astounding. Taking over a team that finished tied for the fewest points in the NHL in 2007-08 and eight points out of a playoff spot last year, Yzerman has turned his franchise into a club that has enough talent to end a three-season playoff drought and maybe even challenge the powerhouse Washington Capitals for bragging rights in the Southeast Division.

Even with all of the moves Yzerman has made since becoming GM, his best might have come on Monday when the Lightning pulled the trigger on a trade with the Flyers that brought two-time 40-goal scorer Simon Gagne into the mix for a defenseman (Matt Walker) that isn't even likely to crack Philadelphia's NHL roster, along with a 2011 fourth-round pick.

Yes, Gagne does come with some injury risk. The 30-year-old missed the start of last season due to abdominal surgery and also suffered a broken foot in the playoffs, though he returned early from that ailment. He has also battled groin and concussion issues in the past, but still owns 259 goals in his career and is a free agent at season's end.

In short, Gagne is a low-risk, high-payoff addition and Yzerman was able to pounce on the forward for such a low price because he knew the Flyers had to move salary to get under the cap.

"This trade not only makes us a better team in the short-term, it helps create long-term flexibility for us, which all along has been one of our top priorities," said Yzerman.

Also factor in that Gagne had to waive his no-trade clause to make the deal happen, and it shows that Yzerman has made Tampa, nowhere close to a hockey town, into an attractive place for players.

There isn't a single aspect of the Lightning's game that hasn't already been touched by Yzerman. Most importantly, he has done so while displaying a keen sense of how to work with the salary cap, an area many NHL general managers have struggled with since its inception following the lockout.

With a solid core of Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, Yzerman earlier locked up veteran and locker room leader Martin St. Louis to a four-year extension, and offset the cost of that new deal by shipping defenseman Andrej Meszaros' reported $4 million cap hit to the Flyers for a 2012 second-round pick.

And that was just the start.

When free agency began, the Lightning inked Dan Ellis, a former promising goaltender with the Predators who lost his starting job last year despite a solid 2.69 goals-against average and .909 save percentage. The best part is Ellis' deal -- a two-year, $3 million pact, which isn't bad for a player who could overtake Mike Smith for the starting role.

Then came the defense. Pavel Kubina, who won a championship with the Lightning in 2004, was brought back to add size and a point shot to the power play, while veteran Brett Clark was added to help mentor the young blueliners.

"I talked to Steve ... and I was very impressed with the direction he's going in with the team," Kubina said after signing with the club. "I always wanted to come home. Other than Czech, Tampa Bay is my second home. I still have my house there and even though I had other offers on the table, I couldn't pass this up."

A 2009 Hall of Fame inductee, Yzerman has wasted little time in transforming the Lightning into contenders, using a number of shrewd moves that would make a fantasy sports owner jealous.

His next task, and maybe the most difficult, is making the fans in Tampa care.

Winning will take care of that.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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