This Week in Golf - June 14th through June 17th

Golf Betting Lines

06/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - UNITED STATES GOLF ASSOCIATION - U.S. OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania - The best in the world head to one of the top courses in the United States this weekend for the second major championship of the season, the U.S. Open.

Oakmont Country Club, the fifth-ranked course in the U.S. by Golf Digest, will host the open for a record eighth time. Prior to this, Oakmont was tied with Baltusrol for most times hosting an Open with seven.

The last time the Open was played at Oakmont was in 1994. Ernie Els claimed the first of his two U.S. Open titles by fending off Loren Roberts and Colin Montgomerie, who posted the first of his three runner-up finishes in the Open, in a three-way playoff.

The extra session was the first three-man playoff since 1963. In the playoff, Els was four-over through two holes, but steadied himself to post one-under the rest of the way to shoot 74.

Roberts also posted a 74, while Montgomerie struggled to a 78. Els and Roberts continued on to the 20th hole, after they matched fours on the 19th hole.

Els found the putting surface with his approach at the par-four 11th, while Roberts dumped his second into a greenside bunker. Roberts blasted to 30 feet and two-putted for bogey. Els walked away with the title as he two-putted for par and the first of his three major titles.

With that win, Els, who was 24 at the time, became the youngest U.S. Open winner since Jerry Pate in 1975.

How long ago was that Open? World No. 1 Tiger Woods was only one of the top amateurs in the country. He was coming off three straight U.S. Junior Amateur wins and would go on to earn his first U.S. Amateur title later that summer.

Last year, Geoff Ogilvy was handed the title as three players coughed up a chance at the title. Montgomerie stumbled to a double-bogey on the 72nd hole. Jim Furyk missed a short par putt on the final hole that would have gotten him into a playoff.

However, the biggest gaffe belonged to Phil Mickelson, who had won the previous two majors -- the 2005 PGA Championship and the 2006 Masters. Mickelson hit his tee shot at 18 off a hospitality tent lining the left side of the fairway, then after a drop, hit a tree with his second. All that led to a double-bogey and gave Ogilvy his first major championship win.

For his part, Ogilvy played solid golf down the stretch. He chipped in for par on 17, then, at the last, he found a sand divot in the fairway, but again saved par to shoot two-over 72 and post five-over 285. That was the highest winning score since Hale Irwin's seven-over at Winged Foot in 1974.

Oakmont will feature long rough and extremely fast greens as all U.S. Open do. However, since Els won the '94 Open here some 3,000 trees have been removed and the course now plays almost like an inland links course.

The course is also much different than it was in 1973 when Johnny Miller shot a U.S. Open record round of eight-under 63. He roared from way back to beat John Schlee by a stroke.

There will be extensive television coverage this week. ESPN and NBC will have coverage from 10:00 a.m. (et) until 7:00 p.m. on Thursday and Friday. NBC will be on air from 3:00-5:00 p.m., while the remaining seven hours of action will be on ESPN. NBC will be on air from 1:00-7:00 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.

The PGA Tour returns next week with the Travelers Championship in Cromwell, Connecticut. Hometown favorite J.J. Henry won there last year.

EUROPEAN TOUR

OPEN DE SAINT-OMER, Aa Saint Omer Golf Club, Lumbres, France - The European Tour is also in action this week with the eighth playing of the Open de Saint- Omer.

Originally part of the Challenge Tour, this event became a dual-ranking event in 2003. Each year since, it has been played opposite the U.S. Open.

Last year, Cesar Monasterio closed with a four-under 67 to overcome a five- shot deficit and claim a one-stroke win over Martin Maritz and third-round leader Henrik Nystrom. Maritz managed just an even-par 71 in the final round, while Nystrom stumbled to a two-over 73 to share second at minus-nine.

Monasterio is not in the field this week, but Maritz and Nystrom are expected to tee it up at Aa Saint Omer Golf Club. Jean-Francois Remesy, a three-time winner on the European Tour and playoff loser last week, is the highest-ranked player in the field.

There is no television coverage for this event.

Next week, the tour heads to Germany for the BMW International Open. This event was played during Labor Day weekend last year and Henrik Stenson bested Retief Goosen and Padraig Harrington in a playoff for his second win of the '06 season.

NATIONWIDE TOUR

ROCHESTER AREA CHARITIES SHOWDOWN AT SOMERBY, Somerby Golf Club, Byron, Minnesota - The Showdown at Somerby was moved up four weeks on the Nationwide Tour schedule this year.

It will be the fourth playing of the event. Last year, Brandt Snedeker needed two extra holes to defeat Jeff Quinney.

Both players have been playing well this year on the PGA Tour as Snedeker is 43rd on the money list, while Quinney is 27th. Each has practically secured their PGA Tour card for next year with over a $1 million earned to this point in the season.

None of the first three winners of this tournament -- Kevin Stadler, Jason Gore and Snedeker -- are in the field this week.

Tom Lehman, captain of the 2006 U.S. Ryder Cup team, co-designed Somerby Golf Club and the course was ranked by Golf Digest as one of the top-10 new private courses in 2005.

The Golf Channel broadcasts action of all four rounds this week. The Nationwide Tour heads to Tennessee next week for the Knoxville Open, where Hunter Haas was victorious last year.

CANADIAN TOUR

TIMES COLONIST OPEN, Gorge Vale Golf Club, Victoria, British Columbia - After a one-month hiatus, the Canadian Tour returns to action this week with the Times Colonist Open.

Last year, Mike Grob closed with three-under 67 to beat Trevor Dodds and John Lieber by one stroke.

Grob, who is the all-time leading money winner on the Canadian Tour, picked up his fourth Canadian Tour win. However, it was his first title since 2002.

There is no television coverage for this event. The tour remains in British Columbia next week for the Greater Vancouver Charity Classic, where Lee Williamson won last year.

DURAMED FUTURES TOUR

MICHELOB ULTRA DURAMED FUTURES PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP, Hickory Point Golf Course, Decatur, Illinois - The Futures Tour hits the halfway point this week with the 10th of 20 events this season.

The Michelob ULTRA Players Championship features the highest purse of the season -- $105,000. Last year, Salimah Mussani claimed the title as she rolled to a five-shot win over Charlotte Mayorkas.

The Futures Tour shifts to Ohio next week for the inaugural Duramed Championship.

Sportbettingshop Golf Betting News

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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